Will my church still be here? Nostalgia, hope and data on the future of religion
Will my church still be here? This question comes up when talking about church giving. Some fresh American data came out recently, but let’s start with Canada.
Fewer church attenders
Fewer people attend church and church attenders tend to be older. Leaving Christianity: Changing Allegiances in Canada since 1945 (Brian Clarke and Stuart McDonald, McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2017) notes that:
“The number of Canadians who have had little or no contact with churches is growing. Many more have no idea what these churches are about and, what is more, have no inclination to find out.” p. 236.
The pandemic has accelerated trends already underway.
More “nones”
The Pew Research Center’s recent report on the future of religion in America says much the same thing. Their analysis of trends shows an increasing number of “nones” - people with no religious affiliation.
I commend their research, it's objective and thorough. It models different scenarios and anticipates questions like “what if migration stopped?” (Spoiler: still lots of “nones”) https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/09/13/modeling-the-future-of-religion-in-america/
Why is this happening?
People raised Christian don’t all stay Christian. Young people between 15-29 are most likely to switch to team “none”, but older people also do. People who were not raised in a religion, the “nones,” tend to stay “nones.” There is some switching from “none” to Christian (and other faiths), but overall trends point to increasing numbers of unaffiliated people.
It’s easy for Christians to become alarmed, but is that the best response?
Nostalgia vs. Hope
People who remember when the pews were full can become nostalgic. They long for the way things used to be, or the way they remember them to have been.
This quote from Dr. Gordon Livingston, cited by Diana Butler Bass, rings true. Nostalgia really is the enemy of hope. Church people can grow attached to a particular building, and this can prevent change and growth. I believe a local church can literally die of nostalgia, withering away while looking backwards.
That said, I’m hopeful. I don’t fear for the future of Christianity. I trust God, our Creator, Redeemer and Sustainer. I do wonder what the church will look like in the future. I think denominations can be as nostalgic as individual congregations.
I’m preaching to myself here: Christian discipleship remains the simple and daunting task of following Jesus in daily life, guided by the Holy Spirit. May we have the grace to follow wherever that may lead.